A Market That No Longer Moves as One

The global scrap metal market entered the last quarter of 2025 with a striking lack of uniformity. While demand in Turkey and parts of the US is rising, the EU and China remain under pressure. Prices move in short bursts rather than long cycles, leaving traders uncertain from one month to the next.

According to the latest surveys, volatility has become the new normal.

In such conditions, timing and access to real-time information determine who earns and who loses on every shipment.

Data Shows Regional Contrasts

In October 2025 the US ferrous-scrap sentiment index in stood at 40.1, signalling another monthly price decline of around 3–4 percent after September’s 2.6 percent fall.

In Turkey, import activity picked up in early October, but national statistics show that total scrap imports for January–August were still 9.4 percent lower year-on-year, at about 12.25 million tonnes

Meanwhile, analysts describe an uneven global picture - the US and Turkey expanding modestly, China and the EU struggling with weak steel output.

According to worldsteel, global steel demand in 2025 is expected to stay roughly flat at 1.75 billion tonnes, with a recovery likely in 2026. Growth is shifting toward India, ASEAN, and MENA, where consumption is projected to rise 3–5 percent annually.

Policy developments add another layer: the European Commission began customs surveillance of scrap exports in mid-2025, and the upcoming Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR) will restrict exports to certain non-OECD countries from May 2027.

Experts See a Market Split in Two Rhythms

Analysts suggest the global scrap trade has split into two rhythms. Mature markets such as the EU are constrained by slower industrial output and tighter environmental oversight, while developing economies in Asia and MENA are absorbing more secondary steel material.

The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) notes that the market now experiences only “rare moments of stability in an otherwise pressure-filled environment.” This combination of weak Western demand and strong Eastern appetite keeps logistics routes and freight rates under continuous pressure.

Experts also point out that upcoming export restrictions in Europe could permanently change global flow patterns, reducing available volumes on open markets and increasing the value of transparent, fast-moving digital exchanges.

What This Means for Traders and Suppliers

For traders and suppliers, these mixed signals mean that timing and diversification matter more than ever. A buyer in Turkey can reverse demand within days, while prices in the US may soften even as Indian mills raise bids.

Traditional trading chains based on phone calls and spreadsheets cannot keep pace with hourly price updates or shifting buyer behaviour.

According to market observers, those who monitor regional price alerts and react to verified digital signals often capture better margins simply because they can move faster and with less uncertainty.

At the same time, tightening EU oversight makes transaction traceability and contract clarity increasingly important-something digital systems deliver by default.

The Road Ahead: Reacting Faster in a Fragmented Market

The scrap market’s fragmentation will likely continue well into 2026.

Regional demand patterns, policy shifts, and freight dynamics will keep prices uneven and opportunities short-lived.

In this environment, success depends less on predicting prices and more on reacting before competitors do.

That’s why platforms like GSMT are built for speed and visibility-providing real-time buyer activity, instant digital contracts, and alerts on price movements across Turkey, India, the EU, and MENA.

When the market changes overnight, GSMT traders move first-and that makes all the difference

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